TV as We Know it, is Doomed – Part 2

Are the old time media corps doomed?

Publisher, you touched on a pet subject when writing about the “TV as we know it, is doomed” story 2 days ago. The following history is not about self indulgence but about opportunity.

15 years ago (end 1994) I was in the Advisory Committee Broadcasting down in the Caribbean Islands and in my presentation to the local lawmakers regarding the future of Radio and TV broadcasting I pointed out that the industry had about 15-20 years to prepare for a new landscape of broadcast entertainment with the emergence of the Internet.

Unfortunately at that time, almost everyone had a good laugh when I explained my vision of future broadcasting and the change in content delivery systems.

Let me recall it as I remember, and add some new facts to it that have emerged since, pointing out where the new broadcasting opportunities are being created right now.

Internet: the doom for many traditional professions and media businesses.

My first and foremost statement about the Internet then and equally now is that media giants will disappear gradually if they don’t embrace the thought that interactive TV will be their only path to survival.

The reason for using the term interactive TV was that I did not foresee the current economic meltdown which only has speed up the transition.

The Year was 1994.

Drastic infrastructural communication enhancements such as fiber optics and the development of a universal computer language making a World Wide Web possible, made me almost instantaneously aware that a drastic change of communication was about to happen and that it would be “unstoppable” and it would be equal to an avalanche coming down Mount Everest.

Pointing out that people up until the introduction of Marc Andreessen’s Mosaic had no way of making visibly clear how computers could interact with each other. It was hard to understand that a new formidable medium made its entrance. A medium that would be doing away with supplier side decisions and opinions of what and where people could see what entertainment, what news would be presented and in which light. The entire program palette what was chosen for them by media executives.

Enjoying their power, they never understood the ongoing changes and the scope of perception of the new opportunities that people would grab, once technically available.¬† More importantly, understanding that “convergence” (power being put back in the hands of the consumer rather then accept what is dished-up by a happy few) was right around the corner. Convergence is what made MySpace popular until people started realizing that it was the same media mogul (Murdoch emperium) impressing mass control. Convergence is what made Google popular, same goes for YouTube, FaceBook and most recently Twitter.

But what does convergence really mean?

Convergence is together with cost saving (the Law of Economics) the ultimate outcome in an epic battle between the old school broadcasting corporations and the emerging business models from YouTube, Vimeo, Hulu and Mojo. People are given a choice through the interactive power of the internet not only to passively watch what is created, but more importantly, to easily manage digital tools would allow them to create their own content.

Steve Jobs introducing the iPhone

Technology has always been its own worst enemy by creating a rapidfire succession of advancements without seeing the full potential.  Yet very bright futuristic thinkers such as Steve Jobs (Apple) Marc Andreessen (developer of Mozaic, Netscape Navigator, and Father of the Firefox browser), Jeff Bezos (Amazon), Larry Page, Sergey Brin  (Google),  Chad Hurley and Steve Chen (YouTube), Mark Zuckerberg, Chris Hughes, Dustin Moskovitz, Eduardo Saverin (Facebook) and Jack Dorsey, Biz Stone and Evan Williams (Twitter) have lead the way and applied the Law of Economics in conjunction with Convergence to every aspect in landscaping the future of entertainment, education and information.

Here I need to introduce a bit of background why Convergence is an inalienable part of nature and therefore includes us humans.

Convergence is based on two rather recent “laws”.

One is Murphy’s Law – 1949 -¬† (If anything can go wrong, it will) and together with Moore’s law (advancement in technology will re-invent itself every 18 months). Moore’s law precisely describes a driving force of technological and social change in the late 20th and early 21st centuries. The trend has continued for more than half a century and is not expected to stop well past 2050.

Moore's Law, 50 years going strong

Note: Moore’s law is named for Intel co-founder Gordon E. Moore, who introduced it in a 1965 paper.

Together these two laws are altering the electronic and broadcasting landscape well beyond the comprehensible without having to question what the inner workings of these laws mean to the finality of the outcome. Many scientists and analysts on the other hand have evaluated what the real workings are behind both syncing laws and each and every one of them thus far have come to the conclusion that a third law was crossing their path: “Occam’s Razor” or the Law about Frugality.

Occam’s razor states that the explanation of any phenomenon should make as few assumptions as possible, eliminating those that make no difference in the observable predictions of the explanatory hypothesis or theory. The principle is often expressed in Latin as the lex parsimoniae (translating to the law of parsimony, law of economy or law of succinctness). When competing hypotheses are equal in other respects, the principle recommends selection of the hypothesis that introduces the fewest assumptions and postulates the fewest entities while still sufficiently answering the question. It is in this sense that Occam’s razor is usually understood. To quote Isaac Newton, “we are to admit no more causes of natural things than such as are both true and sufficient to explain their appearances. Therefore, to the same natural effects we must, so far as possible, assign the same causes.”

Well that was a litany of big and complicated words, so let me simplify this a bit before we are getting “accused” again of being academic.

The part that we want to lift out is the Law of Economy. The law of Economy is often misinterpreted as the building block to describe the functioning of financial aspects within the global realm of trading. That is only one facet and it is crooked at best. For now we focus on the Law of Economy (The Frugal use of Resources) in nature, especially human nature. This Law establishes the phenomenon of “reaching a goal or result at the least complicated and the most energy efficient way no matter what the goal or result should or could be as long as logic is applicable”.

The word “Economy” simply means that any step or action beyond necessary, is per definition a wasteful one, reducing the efficient use of energy. Energy is here comparable with cost or waste of resources.

Conclusion: When power comes back to the people (convergence – self determination) and the Law of Economics are applied the synergy will create a concoction that will knock the wind out of the largest multinational media corporations.

Visionaries and their Influence

The list of the visionaries clearly outlines the novelty in each of the New Wave of Media that started back in 1994. All but one are succeeding or have succeeded in the realm of the New Medium (internet), yet the most innovative person in the line-up is Steve Jobs (Apple). Jobs is the only one in the above mentioned visionariy line up who through innovation and forward thinking has managed to “marry” the new media with a “brick and mortar business” model and… he has a little trick up his sleeve.

You probably have heard of the AppleTV gadget that has been around for about three years now and Apple hasn’t given up on refining this sideline gadget that everyone keeps wondering about. All analysts keep on screaming that Apple should drop it from its hugely successful line-up. But not Jobs. No way is he going to give-up, because Apple keeps on refining the AppleTV quietly and in the background, waiting for the major Networks to collapse and pick-up media broadcasting in a way we have not seen as yet while virtually overnight becoming the largest two way entertainment content provider in the history of broadcasting. Prediction, maybe. Reality, you bet.

When we made the prediction that the biggest ace up Apple’s iPhone sleeve, next to all other innovations, would be an on the fly, build-in voice translator, the significance was lost on most people. Well, it has arrived and translating English to Spanish, French, German, Chinese and vice verse is getting traction. You speak in English and the person on the other end of the line hears your voice in Spanish or French or Chinese. It is an App for now but the testing results are stunning. There are still conflicts about individual word translations but intonation “savvy” speech is a heck of a lot better then trying to speak a language you don’t master yourself.

Jobs understood the Law of Economy and this law will eventually wipe out all others that don’t fully comprehend it and comply. The new Windows 7 may be a giant leap improvement over Windows XP and Vista yet it still has a deadly flaw: Synching or better the lack thereof.

Synchronizing productive tools, communications and entertainment delivery platforms is what Jobs’ vision was and by applying the Law of Economy, that every step too many is a waste of energy and thus increasing the cost, (an Apple Leopard full install is 4.26 GB while a Windows 7 install is at it smallest size 7.9GB and a full blown installation is 24GB) and will therefore in the new “financial world economy” be doomed and discarded by the law of convergence (power in the hands of the people). That day may not be tomorrow or the next day, but the little snowball started rolling down the hill. The beginning of the Avalanche.

So why is doomsday rapidly approaching  for Traditional Broadcasting Corporations?

Each and every single facet applies to Choices, Convergence and Laws of Economy.¬† The advancements of technology, digital compression,¬† the “last Mile” hurdle solution, the obsolescence of TV satellites, one stream containing voice, data, video and radio all merged into a personal feed and “translated” towards your “medium of choice” allowing cross integration including virtual reality overlay on almost any document, movie, radio or net-based visualization with deep integration of payment gateways that are not hampered by old age “Credit Cards” including instantaneous interactive alteration by choice will alter the landscape of entertainment, transportation, grocery shopping, fashion shopping to movie theater. All becoming obsolete unless they’ll embrace convergence and content delivery of the now and the future.

In all honesty, the internet age – the always connected age – makes sitting in front of a TV rather boring and all indications that the major networks are aware of it,¬† is that even last year’s hit shows are now only produced in series of 4 or 5, followed by reruns thereafter for 2 weeks of testing before go ahead (or not) is given to start producing more episodes.

Green Screen video, Any background possible

The Virtual Reality of TV media

Why is it possible to cut these shows short: ” because virtual reality has created a whole new way for cinematography” and “shooting on location” has actually become a studio with a green or blue screen. Even mega feature film productions have become a figment of imagination using the blue and green screens. Digital videography is becoming so sophisticated that even the use of blue and green screens will disappear and instant change of fore- and background will be key framed into any scene, no matter how complicated the scenery.

So what are the opportunities?

The employment opportunities in the new media order are so multi-faceted that it is hard to summarize.
Let’s give it a try and please note that this list is far from complete:

• Creative Visualization
• multi-project collaboration across geographical and timezone borders
• Electronic compositions and sound effects
• Video editing and special effects
• Graphic arts and electronic sketching
• Project visualization in 3D
• Digital Stream Coordinators
• Mashable Media Visualizers
• Mashable Audio technicians
• Instantaneous News Casting
• Blogging and mini script writing
• Visual Technicians
• Digital Enhancers
• Social Media Promoters
• Networking Public Relations
• Network Security Technicians
• “Last Mile” Technicians
• Customization Technicians
• Feed Followers
• Response Technicians
• Product content developers
• Product content management
• Online-CRM (Customer Relationship Management)
• Fulfillment Coordinators and Technicians
• Order Processing coordinators and Technicians
• Content translators (live)
• and so many more….

In Conclusion, Why Murphy’s law (Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong), Moore’s Law (every 18 months the innovation and capacity will double) and Occam’s Razor (Law of Economy)?

Murphy’s Law may be the odd one in the line-up but in actuality is quite important. Too many variables, too many “fixes”, too many “bridges”, too many people involved, too many stagnant old time thinkers in the mix will sooner or later cause the breakdown. And evidence is growing that it is sooner.

Moore’s law (every 18 months the speed of processors will double and has done so for more than half a century) will allow for future and forward thinking. Not what is possible today but what is possible tomorrow. Fiber optic cables that where laid in 2000 and that had a maximum capacity of 10 Gigs are now light speeding along at 60 – 80 Gigs (the same cables mind you). Light is a frequency and every bundle of the same light is equal to a capacity. The sheer amount of different color combinations allows for trillions of frequencies in the near future. This is how cables with a fixed capacity 10 years ago are now upgraded to 60-80 Gigs just by changing the end stations that can send and receive more differentiated colors thus more frequencies.

Even Satellites are doomed, because they cannot be upgraded this simple. Moore’s law will make it possible to send thousands of tv, radio, communication streams to millions of users in a short 1 to two years (It is already possible today but infrastructure upgrades of the “last Mile” will take a bit of time).

And lastly the Occam’s Razor. It will be a “razor” for those that are stuck in the “more is better” ideology and totally neglect the Law of Economy. The simpler it is, the easier you can inter-connect your gadgets, the more user convergence you’ll offer.

No matter how you think or your wallet provides, the time of economization is upon us, forced by lack of resources or forced by lack of financial means. We are looking at the last quiet hurrah’s of a resources consuming era that was not capable of thinking in terms of efficiency and economic use of those resources. As the economy changes, so will the controls. And that’s why TV is doomed.

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