• achoubeach
    What an excellent overview of the mess that won't go away. money for nothing chicks for free
  • meghannb
    Don't blame your former President, Mr Bush? Why not? Why would you blame President Obama the man is not a god or saviour he has been in office less than a 1 yr did you really expect him to wave a magic wand and clean up the mess from the previous administration of 8 long yrs??? It wouldn't matter who was in the White House this mess will take a long long time to fix up and no one wants it to go away more than the current president.
    Homes are for living in, yes it is great that you can make money on them most of the time, people should cool their jets and relax and enjoy the fact that they own a home and now worry about how much then can get for it down the road. Yes of course some people need to sell especially if they have lost jobs and can't pay the mortgage payments or they need to move from state to state to look for jobs but in the end good times or bad, many many people took out mortgages that they knew they could never afford if times got tough, maybe home ownership is not for everyone, maybe people really do have to earn the right to own a house as it has been made far too easy under the former administration.
  • This is not about the president, current or past, since as of 1913 every elected president was carefully selected by the financial puppet masters. The real power behind the president are the ones that hold the financial purse.
  • Hal_Burns
    I remember these type of articles very well. 2005 was a great year looking at it as if it were a bottle of fine wine. It was at the end of this year that we began to hear on the nightly news "has the real estate bubble burst?" or "is the real estate bubble about to burst?". It was these kind of messages that started the "herd" moving in a different direction, fear was driving that heard, not reality. Prior to that unemployment was down, it was difficult to find someone to work, jobs were plentiful and almost everyone had a paycheck. The last thing to remember was the number of forclosures were "normal", not a run away train as we have today. Yes, I remember these articles very well.
  • Was there really a real estate herd? Are "bubbles" herd induced or "Expert" induced? I guess we like to think in "blame" terms. We need to put the blame on someone else, right? I have to agree with the publisher when stating that all those "experts" that spew their rubbish and sell fairy tales should be locked-up and they key should be thrown away.

    When will common sense prevail. If you got a dollar in your pocket these "experts" would tell you that you could borrow 10 based on a backwards system of "debt servicing". I can't escape the thought that common sense tells me that I still have to earn the 10 and then plus some. So the question arises that I need to figure out how to do that in a "secure" manner. I could look at my "past" (Credit History) like all those "experts" do, but is that where I really get an idea about my future earnings?

    Again common sense to me would be to look at how long it took me to "save" that one dollar in my pocket rather then looking at how fast I can spend what I have not earned yet and how long it takes me to pay back what I have already borrowed from the future. The law of economy (also called the law of frugality) is inalienable. There is no way to defeat that law.

    Let me exemplify this: I'm a software company providing the "engine" to run a computer. I'm counting on the fact that the computer will evolve, becomes faster, will get more capabilities and will get into more people's hands over time and thus I will "grow" with those capabilities and thus I make a projection of my future based on this knowledge. Is that realistic? Many will say yes. I doubt that because the law of economy dictates that people have sought over centuries to make processes more "economical". If I would go by the premise that evolution of a gadget is based on the same gadget we all would still live in the dark ages. Pre-historic as a matter of fact. When we humans figured out a way to "create" fire with a stick and a stone and I would be stuck on the idea that fire could only be created by stick and stone (and all those that remembered the movie with Tom Hanks in Cast Away how frustrating and labor intensive it was) I would be a fool to believe that the "evolution" of creating fire would be "stuck" to the stick and the stone. The law of economy tells me that someone will come up with a better way.

    Now back to my software company. If I believe that my business model will be based on the same principle infinitely I would fool myself. Even if I would re-invent my business model appropriately, my company would still be wiped out with one breakthrough invention making that computer that I create this software for, obsolete. Question is: "will that happen"? I bet you.

    Bio Nano technology is not a myth and will most certainly make its presence and will wipe out my software company.

    So Hal, I will make tons of money while it lasts but I will not be able to defeat the law of economy unless I evolve. Darwin was right when he stated that survival of the fittest is not based superiority but on adaptability.

    This brings me to the question why there are still 350+ Realtors in the Nassau County alone while on average there are only some 15-20 houses changing hands and most of them due to foreclosures per month, having fancy offices and "doing business" far beyond their means. All in hopes that the good times of 2005 return?

    No Hal, it was not the real estate bubble that burst at the end of 2005 due to evening news broadcasts creating a "scared" herd effect. It was those same spin doctors that could not hide anymore the fact that you had been lied to in believing that you could borrow well beyond your means by looking at your past through rosy glasses in stead of looking at what you could save and how long it would take you to "save".

    In another article today about "Famous Quotes" there is one that jumps out on us. This country lives by statistics, but unfortunately most "experts" fall in the following category:

    “He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts… for support rather than illumination.”
    - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
  • Publisher
    To answer your opening line on bubbles:it's all about the money. Money was originally invented to facilitate barter transactions that had no timely or functional equality. For example: I need a boat to fish today but can only offer the boatbuilder a choice of shoes and pants that I produce over time.
    Well the value of the boat outweighs the boatbuilder's maximum need for shoes and clothes, so what to do about the difference? That's how beads, coins, mirrors, gold, silver and ultimately paper money came into the picture of currency transactions. All good and well so far. But than the financial wizards needed new products to sell to the people (around the mid 1990's) Since those days money was packaged into financial products and leveraged as if it were it distributable product that came from the heart of the Amazonas, all financial institutions stood in line for a piece of the pie. They used their contacts within the media to announce that the holy grail was found. These contacts became "experts" and "spin doctors" pushing the financial institutions "Gospel" that homeownership and prosperity was now within everyone's reach. They created Capitalist Socialism by leveraging the financial shorts of the fieldworker with the financial power of the landowner, mixed and bundled it with hundreds of similar ones and than leveraged the muddy package of good and bad properties and loans by selling it several times over to earn commissions from. The overriding idea always was that the good loans would make up for the bad ones if things would go wrong. But than everyone got greedy by building monster Credit Default Swaps (blocks of highly leveraged loans). The bubble was a herd action, fed and guided by the "expert" cowboys in the saddle who got their instructions from the financial manipulators back in their glass towers. (the same ones that are now starting to pay themselves huge bonuses again). You decide whether this hoax was intentional or not. I only observe and am politically unbiased and ideologically centered.
  • Thanks for the illuminating answer on the chain reaction, but if I read correctly, my analysis still holds water. The bubble was not created by the herd but by a small group of "experts" dishing up a holy grail of smoke and mirrors they themselves did not understand completely telling fairy tales on how everyone could become a homeowner no matter how bad the "credit" was.

    When you build a castle on sand (credit history) and the underlying foundation is quicksand (leveraging of Credit Default Swaps) you can't blame the burst of the bubble on the Herd. "Expertise" from the "cowboys" listening to the instructions of the glass tower Emperors created this mess, intentional or not.

    Unless we start breaking down what "expertise" today still means, the underlying meaning back then was still to assist those that do not have this knowledge and get paid (often exorbitantly) for this knowledge. Once you who does not have this knowledge have to pay for this knowledge from the "Experts" the word accountability comes to mind. Here is where I have a problem like yourself since the glass tower manipulators today are still the same breed as those that created this mess.

    Accountability has lost all meaning to most of us, intentionally or not.
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