We continue to hear from some media sources that things are better, things are turning the corner and there is light at the end of the tunnel. Then we hear from other media sources that this is not the case, things are not getting better and we are not turning the corner, the light at the end of this tunnel is the headlight of the oncoming train.
I for one don’t like to take what I hear as absolute fact, from either side. I prefer to listen and then do just a little research and see if I can piece the puzzle together. In my opinion the present condition of our current economic well being is tied to real estate, I don’t think there is anyone who wouldn’t agree. It is the foreclosures and short sales that are going to determine when we will see positive changes in our economy, not stimulus bills or ton’s of money being thrown around like sailors in a brothel in Zanzibar.
I did a little research and found the following information a bit disturbing. First American CoreLogic is a housing data firm and it tracks over 97% of all mortgage transactions in this country. We now have one in 14 mortgages at least 90 days delinquent and that number is up from one in 22 just twelve months ago. We now have 3.5 million mortgages at least 90 days behind and another 2 million that are at least 180 days behind. Frankly, to me these numbers are staggering.
Some of the hottest foreclosure spots in country are; Las Vegas with 21.7%, Miami is 28.8%. Miami is very high but the rest of the state of Florida is 16%, Riverside California is at 19.1% and Bakersfield comes in at 16.4%. Of course foreclosures are driven by the unemployment numbers; as they continue to rise, so rises the number of foreclosures. When people can’t make their mortgage payments there is only road they can take and that is to face foreclosure. I was listening to the Clark Howard radio show yesterday afternoon and he said that it took people twenty five years to get back to even after the great depression – twenty five years. It was around 1954 that things began to get back to even.
The above numbers are based on just residential properties; so what about our commercial markets? Take a look at the shopping centers and strip centers that are either vacant or showing more commercial closings every month. The commercial foreclosure show is about to open. The next time you hear a media source giving you information, try a little research before you believe it. It may just open your eyes to the truth. And at least from there you can prepare a picture for yourself, rather than being caught like a deer in the headlights.