Real Estate Numbers and Wishful Thinking

The Real Numbers Tell Differently

The Real Numbers Tell Differently

I read with interest the business section of the Florida Times Union this morning telling how the Real Estate sales were up by seventy percent in the area. I thought to myself, I must be living inside of a conch shell with no contact of the outside world. I haven’t seen any upswing in sales of residential properties, not in the least. Then I open my laptop and read to my surprise that new home sales in November for the Nation “plunged unexpectedly” with 11% from October. Either some people are lying, some people are just plain stupid or some people are deceitfully massaging the available statistics to reflect their ulterior motives.

Nationwide resale of residential units rose 7% as a result of the termination of the first time buyer tax credit. New home Nationwide sales dropped since October with 11%, mainly because new home first time buyers got an extension of the tax credit until April 30, 2010. These are the numbers and everyone can interpret them the way they see fit.

If you’d like a little more diversifying number to make up your mind than it may be useful to learn that Nationwide in new homes sales the only strong region was the Midwest, where sales rose 21 percent. Sales fell by 21 percent in the South, 9 percent in the West and 3 percent in the Northeast.
Looks to me like the South is moving to the Midwest! This is however contradicted by this story.

I did a little research and found the following facts based on the data provided by the Nassau County Multiple Listing Service. The following residential sales numbers are for the entire county. Taking a snapshot of a thirty day range, 11-23 to 12-23 for 2006 thru 2009.

2009- 47 sales
2008- 57 sales
2007- 56 sales
2006- 65 sales

Now I don’t know about you, but my math tells me we haven’t seen any upturn in the market. I would be curious as to where the data came from in the Jacksonville area. Were the numbers based on true arms length transactions, or were they short sales and foreclosures included in with normal sales? We must remember that every time a short sales takes place or a foreclosure is sold the value of our own properties fall.

I guess I will have to get out of that conch shell and see what is exactly going on in the world around me. Seventy percent, that would a huge increase in one month. I think some careless reporter used wishful thinking to guide them, yet I would hope an editor would catch it. Oh well, perhaps there will be a little Christmas magic and we will see things turn around soon. At this point it will take magic because I don’t see any common sense coming out of our Washington leaders.

Feedburner If you enjoyed this post, please consider leaving a comment below or subscribe to the feed to have future articles delivered to your e-mail and get the latest Amelia Island News, business, tourist activities and videos every morning!

SearchAmelia on TwitterYou can also choose to follow SearchAmelia on Twitter to get your daily updates!

Leave a Comment